The Madden Moneyline: Texans at Chiefs

by Aht Dafuq

Published on Wed, Sep 2nd, 2020 at 8:30 pm PST

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The accuracy of Madden simulations versus reality are well-documented. We set out to see just how accurate, and pass that info to you. We did all the heavy lifting for you. You're welcome.

We've spent many hours running simulations and charting the results. And now for the first time, Schmuck Sports is proud to give it to you! Let's break down each matchup in the hopes of gaining insight on not only game outcome, but player performance.

Bottom Line: Late Heroics by Watson not enough

In each matchup, Watston threw for an avg of 320 yds. But a couple of times he threw some picks. In the end, the Chiefs take 3 out of 5 matches. But don't forget, the spread is Chiefs -9.5


The Chiefs dominate most the game, controlling the clock on the ground with Helaire and breaking big plays with Hill and Watkins.


Mahomes was the true game manager, hitting Hill on some key drive-sustaining plays. Capped off by some short TD runs by Helaire who ends up racking up some decent fantasy points. Keep in mind: Helaire ends up being a stud through almost all the iterations.

Top Rusher Rush Yds TD FUM
D. Johnson 10 50 1 0
Helaire 19 95 2 0

Despite losing most iterations, Watson puts up some great stats, even against that KC defense, which does just enough, but is not game-changing. Here are your standouts

Standout Yds TD
Watson 330 3
Helaire 79 2
Watkins 110 1
Sacks INT FF
3 1 1

Vegas has this game as a KC blowout. Madden simulations see it differently.

Vegas Sim
Spread  -9.5  -4
Total 54.5 53.5(U)*
*Total estimate is greater than score total because they are two different data points factored separately.

Vegas spread holds firm at -9.5, but Madden has an issue with that spread. It thinks that might be too wide.

Schmuck's guidance:

HOU + 9.5


-Aht Dafuq

Schmuck Sports Contributor